2046 Pacific typhoon season (Entharex's Version)
NOTE #1: THIS PAGE IS CAREFULLY MONITORED. ANY NONCONSTRUCTIVE EDITS TO THIS ARTICLE WILL BE PROMPTLY REVERTED. NOTE #2: YOU MAY FOUND SOME NAMES DIFFERENT FROM THE CURRENT NAME LIST OF WESTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES (INCLUDING PAGASA'S NAME LIST). THIS IS BECAUSE SOME NAMES WERE RETIRED AND REPLACED BEFORE THE 2046 SEASON, WHICH WILL BE MORE REALISTIC. NOTE #3: LOTS OF EFFORT USED. PLEASE ENJOY! NOTE #4: THIS PAGE IS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION. The 2046 Pacific typhoon season was an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation, in which tropical cyclones formed in the western Pacific Ocean. The season began with the formation of Severe Tropical Storm Matmo on January 3, 2046; and ended after Typhoon Koppu which dissipated on January 5, 2047. The season was the most active tropical cyclone season (due to the extremely strong El Niño event throughout the year) ever recorded, and has an ACE Index index of 748.13. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, fourteen tropical cyclone attained super typhoon status, thirteen of which became Category 5 Super Typhoons, marking the highest number of super typhoons and Category 5 storms in a single season on record. Moreover, it is also the most costly tropical cyclone season ever recorded, with a total damage of 618.38 billion USD . Severe Tropical Storm Matmo in early-January was the first system in 2046, causing landslide incidents and floods in Mindanao,the Philippines resulting in 2 deaths and damage at over 114 million pesos in the island. On 16 January, Typhoon Halong formed and quickly became a Category 4 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale ,with maximum 1-min sustainable wind speed reaching 240km/h, making it the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in January and the first of the year's record-breaking fourteen super typhoons. Typhoon Nakri in mid-February became the earliest Category 5 storm ever formed in the basin and it brought severe damage to the Mariana Islands. In April, Typhoon Fung-wong and Typhoon Kanmuri, which is a Category 5 and 4 storm respectively, raged simultaneously at the open Pacific Ocean, as well as being the earliest named sixth and seventh storm. In May, Typhoon Nuri became a Category 5 storm caused US$176 million USD in damages and killed 79 people in Marshall islands and Caroline Islands. Major Hurricane Kika crossed the International Date Line from the Central Pacific and entered the basin in late-June, and became a Category 5 storm. In July, there were 4 Category 5 storms formed in the basin. Typhoon Hagupit became the first typhoon with a central pressure lower than 900mb (890mb) since Typhoon Namtheun of the 2044 season in early-July and made landfall over Taiwan, Korea and Japan causing 624 deaths and 6.7 billion US dollar of loses. On July 17, there are 6 tropical cyclones, Typhoon Nara, Tropical Storm Bavi, Typhoon Mekkhala, Typhoon Higos and 2 JMA Tropical Depressions, developed simultaneously in the basin, while Typhoon Mekkhala and Typhoon Higos interacted with each other, causing Typhoon Mekkhala to perform a cyclonic loop and landfalled over the Philippines for two times. Typhoon Nara became the strongest storm on Earth while breaking 14 records and landfalled over the the the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, Russia and United States, causing more than 13,000 deaths (most deaths are caused by the huge storm surges and floods that damaged most temporary houses settled in Japan after the 624 Earthquake.) and 517.3 billion USD of loses, becoming the costliest and deadliest tropical cyclone worldwide in 2038. In early-August, Typhoon Dolphin traveled very slowly; it traveled only about 2700 km in a long life span of 16 days. This is due to the sudden ease of trade winds and strong, deep monsoonal westerlies to its south prevented it from fast movements. At the same time, Tropical Storm Lana crossed the International Date Line from the Central Pacific and entered the basin and became a violent Category 3 typhoon, and later became one of the most intense extratropical cyclones in the north Pacific Ocean since reliable records began and indirectly contributed to below-average temperatures in Alaska, United States.Typhoon Kujira formed near the equator in mid-August and devastated Micronesia and Guam. A few days later, it landfalled over Luzon, Philippines, with 1-minute sustainable wind speed at 265km/h measured, which means it lanfalled on the island as a Catagory 5 storm, killing 2319 people in the Philippines alone, causing it to be the deadliest tropical cyclone related disaster in the Philippines since Typhoon Mitag in the 2039 season. Typhoon Chan-hom lanfalled over Kamakura, Japan as a Category 2 Typhoon. It caused the death of over 1,400 people. (Mostly due to the unfinished recovery from Typhoon Nara which devastated the city a month ago.) Tropical Depression 25W formed at the west of Mindanao, Philippines in early-September. It headed west or west-northwest and exited the basin a week later. After entering the Bay of Bengal, it intensified to a Category 3 cyclone and brought devastation to Bangladesh. Tropical Storm Soudelor was absorbed by Typhoon Nangka in early-September. In late-September, Typhoon Molave and Typhoon Goni were born as a twin and became a Category 5 duet. This only happened twice in history; Typhoon Ivan and Typhoon Joan of the 1997 season was the first to become a Category 5 duet ever. In mid-October, Typhoon Vamco formed at 30.8°N, which is far north than a typical tropical cyclone, it even strengthened to a Catagory 2 storm at 40.5°N and lanfalled over kamchatka Peninsula, Russia as a tropical storm later. Tropical Storm Omeka became the third and the last tropical cyclone that crossed the International Date Line from the Central Pacific. It entered the basin in late-October, and became a Category 5 storm afterwards; it was also one of the longest-lived tropical cyclones, with a total lifespan of 27 days. In early-December, Typhoon Koppu became the last system of the season, as well as the last of the thirteen Category 5 storms. It dissipated on the December 22 after bringing minor damage to Micronesia; and marked an end of the season. The scope of this article is limited to the Pacific Ocean to the north of the equator between 100th meridian east and 180th meridian. Within the northwestern Pacific Ocean, there are two separate agencies that assign names to tropical cyclones which can often result in a cyclone having two names. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) will name a tropical cyclone should it be judged to have 10-minute sustained wind speeds of at least 65 km/h (40 mph) anywhere in the basin, whilst the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) assigns names to tropical cyclones which move into or form as a tropical depression in their area of responsibility located between 135°E and 115°E and between 5°N–25°N regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone has already been given a name by the JMA. Tropical depressions that are monitored by the United States' Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are given a number with a "W" suffix. Seasonal forecasts During the year several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many tropical cyclone, tropical storms, and typhoons will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies included the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of the University College London, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau. Some of the forecasts took into consideration what happened in previous seasons and the El Niño Conditions that were observed during the year. The first forecast of the year was released by PAGASA during January 2046, within its seasonal climate outlook for the period January – June. The outlook noted that one to two tropical cyclones were expected between January and March while one to three were expected to develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility between April and June. During March the Hong Kong Observatory predicted that the typhoon season in Hong Kong, would be near normal with five to eight tropical cyclones passing within 500 km (310 mi) of the territory compared to an average of six. Within its Pacific ENSO Update for the 2nd quarter of 2046, NOAA's Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation Applications Climate Center, noted that the risk of a damaging tropical cyclone in Micronesia was "greatly enhanced" by the strong El Niño. As a result, they forecasted that the risk of a typhoon severely affecting Micronesia was high, with most islands predicted to have a "1 in 2 chance" of serious effects from some combination of high winds, large waves and extreme rainfall from a typhoon. They also predicted that there was a near 100% chance of severe effects from a typhoon somewhere within Micronesia. On May 5, China Meteorological Administration's Shanghai Typhoon Institute (CMA-STI)predicted a total of 28-34 tropical storms will develop in the basin. On May 6, Tropical Storm Risk issued their first forecast for the season and predicted that the season, would be the most active since 1997 with activity forecast to be above average. Specifically it was forecast that 32 tropical storms, 22 typhoons, 14 intense typhoons would occur, while an ACE Index of 490 was also forecasted. In late June the Thai Meteorological Department predicted that one or two tropical cyclones would move towards Thailand during 2015. The first of the two tropical storms was predicted to pass near Upper Thailand in either August or September, while the other one was expected to move to the south of Southern Thailand during November. On June 30, Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau predicted that 30-35 tropical storms would develop over the basin, while an above average three — seven systems were expected to affect Taiwan itself. During July, Jay Frank Ford of the United States National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Tiyan, Guam, called for tropical cyclone activity to be above average or even surpassing the 1997 season. He also predicted that tens of records would be set for the number of major typhoons in the western Pacific, tropical storms, typhoons and major typhoons in Micronesia. PAGASA subsequently predicted within its July — December seasonal climate outlook, that six to twelve tropical cyclone were likely to develop and/or enter the Philippine area of responsibility between July and September, which is significantly above-average; while three to seven were predicted for the October–December period. On July 16, the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) and the City University of Hong Kong's School of Energy, released their seasonal forecast for the period between June 1 — November 30. They predicted that 27.2 tropical cyclones would develop during the period with 14.8 of these going on and making landfall compared to averages of 22.6 and 18.1 tropical cyclones. They further predicted that both the Korea — Japan region and that Taiwan and the Eastern Chinese provinces of Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian would see three to four of these landfalls each. Vietnam, the Philippines and the Southern Chinese provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan were forecasted to see five landfalling tropical cyclones. On August 5, Tropical Storm Risk issued their final forecast for the season and predicted that 2015 would be a hyperactive season and may probably surpass the 1997 season. Specifically it was forecast that 34 tropical storms, 24 typhoons, 19 intense typhoons would occur, while an ACE Index of 643 was also forecasted. Season summary ImageSize = width:650 height:260 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:2 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/01/2046 till:01/01/2047 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/01/2046 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<62_km/h_(<39_mph) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_63-88_km/h_(39-54_mph) id:ST value:rgb(0.80,1,1) legend:Severe_Tropical_Storm_=_89-117_km/h_(55-73_mph) id:TY value:rgb(0.99,0.69,0.6) legend:Typhoon_=_>118_km/h_(>74_mph) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:03/01/2046 till:11/01/2046 color:ST text:"Matmo" from:09/01/2046 till:11/01/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:16/01/2046 till:25/01/2046 color:TY text:"Halong" from:07/02/2046 till:20/02/2046 color:TY text:"Nakri" from:21/02/2046 till:25/02/2046 color:TS text:"Fengshen" from:22/03/2046 till:28/03/2046 color:ST text:"Kalmaegi" from:04/04/2046 till:16/04/2046 color:TY text:"Fung-wong" from:05/04/2046 till:14/04/2046 color:TY text:"Kanmuri" from:27/04/2046 till:05/05/2046 color:TY text:"Phanfone" from:29/04/2046 till:11/05/2046 color:TY text:"Vongfong" from:16/05/2046 till:23/05/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:16/05/2046 till:26/05/2046 color:TY text:"Nuri" barset:break from:16/05/2046 till:19/05/2046 color:TD text:"Florita" from:29/05/2046 till:07/06/2046 color:TY text:"Sinlaku" from:29/06/2046 till:03/07/2046 color:TY text:"Kika" from:01/07/2046 till:10/07/2046 color:TY text:"Hagupit" from:02/07/2046 till:06/07/2046 color:TS text:"Jangmi" from:09/07/2046 till:18/07/2046 color:TY text:"Makhala" from:09/07/2046 till:21/07/2046 color:TY text:"Higos" from:14/07/2046 till:20/07/2046 color:TS text:"Bavi" from:16/07/2046 till:19/07/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:16/07/2046 till:17/07/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:16/07/2046 till:04/08/2046 color:TY text:"Nara" from:22/07/2046 till:25/07/2046 color:TD text:"18W" barset:break from:24/07/2046 till:07/08/2046 color:TY text:"Haishen" from:28/07/2046 till:05/08/2046 color:TY text:"Noul" from:03/08/2046 till:18/08/2046 color:TY text:"Dolphin" from:05/08/2046 till:06/08/2046 color:TD text:"Neneng" from:06/08/2046 till:12/08/2046 color:TY text:"Lana" from:14/08/2046 till:27/08/2046 color:TY text:"Kujira" from:16/08/2046 till:18/08/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:19/08/2046 till:20/08/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:22/08/2046 till:29/08/2046 color:TY text:"Chan-hom" from:27/08/2046 till:28/08/2046 color:TD text:"Ompong" from:29/08/2046 till:05/09/2046 color:ST text:"Linfa" from:03/09/2046 till:10/09/2046 color:TD text:"25W" barset:break from:03/09/2046 till:15/09/2046 color:TY text:"Nangka" from:05/09/2046 till:10/09/2046 color:TS text:"Soudelor" from:13/09/2046 till:16/09/2046 color:TD text:"28W" from:15/09/2046 till:19/09/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:15/09/2046 till:17/09/2046 color:TD text:"Rosita" from:19/09/2046 till:20/09/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:23/09/2046 till:02/10/2046 color:TY text:"Molave" from:23/09/2046 till:04/10/2046 color:TY text:"Goni" from:30/09/2046 till:07/10/2046 color:TS text:"Atsani" from:02/10/2046 till:06/10/2046 color:ST text:"Etau" from:08/10/2046 till:09/10/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:16/10/2046 till:20/10/2046 color:TY text:"Vamco" barset:break from:25/10/2046 till:16/11/2046 color:TY text:"Omeka" from:25/10/2046 till:27/10/2046 color:TD text:"Waldo" from:27/10/2046 till:02/11/2046 color:TY text:"Krovanh" from:14/11/2046 till:22/11/2046 color:TY text:"Dujuan" from:16/11/2046 till:19/11/2046 color:TD text:"36W" from:26/11/2046 till:29/11/2046 color:TS text:"Mujigae" from:07/12/2046 till:12/12/2046 color:TS text:"Choi-wan" from:07/12/2046 till:11/12/2046 color:TD text:"Bagwis" from:09/12/2046 till:22/12/2046 color:TY text:"Koppu" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/01/2046 till:01/02/2046 text:January from:01/02/2046 till:01/03/2046 text:February from:01/03/2046 till:01/04/2046 text:March from:01/04/2046 till:01/05/2046 text:April from:01/05/2046 till:01/06/2046 text:May from:01/06/2046 till:01/07/2046 text:June from:01/07/2046 till:01/08/2046 text:July from:01/08/2046 till:01/09/2046 text:August from:01/09/2046 till:01/10/2046 text:September from:01/10/2046 till:01/11/2046 text:October from:01/11/2046 till:01/12/2046 text:November from:01/12/2046 till:01/01/2047 text:December Accumulated Cyclone Energy Rating (ACE) The table below shows the ACE for each storm in the season. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h) or tropical storm strength. This season had the highest ACE of any season on record, with an overall value of 748.13. According to the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium, the 81-year norm of the ACE of Northwest Pacific typhoon season from 1965-2045 is 302 ,while an ACE above 331, between 245 to 331 and below 245 will be defined as "above-average", "near-normal", and "below-average" respectively. The cumulative ACE for the Western Pacific this season easily fell within the official "above-average" grading. The ACE is 247.73 percent of the yearly norm. The season has surpassed the previous record of the 1997 season by nearly 26 percent. The single storm which has the highest accumulated is Typhoon Nara, which totally accumulated 110.22 ACE points in its lifetime, becoming the single storm with the highest ACE ever recorded. It is followed by Typhoon Omeka and Typhoon Higos, which accumulated 48.07 and 40.47 ACE points respectively. There is an abnormally high number of long-lived and powerful storms in this season, giving it a whopping amount of ACE points. Storms Severe Tropical Storm Matmo (Agaton) On January 1, the JTWC started to monitor a weak tropical disturbance northeast of Palau and it headed west. During the next day, the system gained convective activity near the center,and the JMA upgraded the system to a tropical depression late on January 3. On the same day, as it is in the PAR, the PAGASA gave the local name Agaton. At the same time, the JTWC issued a TCFA on the depression. Later that day, the JTWC followed suit, giving the designation 01W. The January 5, the JMA upgraded the system to a tropical storm, receiving the name Matmo. The next day, because of an increase of convection and some favorable environments (low to moderate wind shear and high SST), Matmo intensified to a severe tropical storm by the JMA. Later that day, Matmo made landfall over Carcanmadcarlan, which is a settlement area on the island of Mindanao, the Philippines. Landfalling had weakened the storm and both the JMA and JTWC downgraded it to a tropical storm on the next day and the system started to move northwest. On January 7, it made landfall over Negros, the Philippines as a minimal tropical storm. On January 10, Mekkhala encountered high vertical wind shear as both agencies made their final warning on the system. However, the JMA tracked the system until January 11, over the South China Sea. Typhoon Halong During January 10, the JTWC started to monitor a tropical disturbance that had developed within an area marginal for further development near Kosrae. Over the next couple of days the system gradually developed further and was classified as a tropical depression by the JMA during January 16. During the next day, the JMA reported that the depression had intensified into a tropical storm and named it Halong. The JTWC simultaneously upgraded the storm to Tropical Storm 02W as it started to intensify under favorable conditions. The next day, both agencies upgraded it to a minimal typhoon. On January 22, Halong underwent rapid deepening until it was classified a Category 4 Super typhoon according to the JTWC. On the next couple of days, Halong gradually weakened and JTWC issued its final warning on Halong on January 25. The both agencies declared Halong became extratropical later on the same day. At its peak, Halong became the strongest typhoon on record in the month of January, as well as being the first Super Typhoon ever formed in the basin. Although the system was strong, it stayed over the open Pacific Ocean for its entire lifetime, so no landmasses were affected. Typhoon Nakri On February 5, a tropical disturbance formed at southeast of Marshall Islands which headed west-northwest. On February 7, the JMA upgraded the disturbance into a tropical depression. On the same day, the JTWC started issuing advisories and designated it as 03W. On February 8, the JMA upgraded the depression into a tropical storm and named it Nakri. The JMA further upgraded the system to a severe tropical storm on the next day. On the following day, the JTWC upgraded Nakri to a typhoon. Twelve hours later, the JMA had followed suit. Over the next few days, Nakri continued to intensify due to favorable environments (SST of over 31 degrees Celsius and low vertical wind shear) until it reached Category 5 super typhoon status on February 13. On the same day, it devastated the Mariana Islands, killing 126 people and bringing more than 2 billion USD of damage. It weakened into a category 4 super typhoon 18 hours later, until it weakened into a category 4 equivalent typhoon after maintaining super typhoon status for 30 hours. Nakri moved north-northwest and weakened further into a Catagory 1 typhoon on February 16, and re-strengthened to a Catagory 3 storm on the next day. It made landfall over Tosashimizu, Kochi on February 19 as a weak tropical storm. The both agencies issued their final warnings on the same day. On February 20, Nakri dissipated inland. Nakri is the earliest Category 5 storm ever formed in the basin, and it was the worst tropical cyclone-related disaster since Typhoon Talas of the 2023 season. Tropical Storm Fengshen (Basyang) Early on February 16, an area of low pressure formed to the east of Philippines. The system gradually drifted west over the next few days and late on February 20, the JTWC Started issuing advisories as a Tropical Depression and designated it as 04W. Early the next day, the JMA upgraded the area of low pressure into a Tropical Depression. A few hours later, PAGASA started monitoring the system as a Tropical Depression and named it with a local name - 'Basyang'. On the next day, the system started to drift northwestwards and strengthened rapidly, that on midnight that day, the JMA and JTWC further upgraded the system into a Tropical Storm, while the JMA named it Fengshen. On Febuary 23, Fengshen drifted north and affected Taiwan, causing serious flooding. Then, the storm weakened rapidly and on February 25, the JMA and JTWC, issuing their final warning on the system, downgraded it into a tropical low over the Yellow Sea. The city of Taipei were reported to be completely flooded by the rain. However, only minor damage was reported. Fengshen killed 2 men, as their boat was capsized in the vicinity of Green Island, Taiwan. Fengshen suspended all classes in Luzon from Pre-school to college levels on February 22. In Northern Luzon, Fengshen poured down heavy rainfall becoming widespread flooding in the area. The national roads were impassable and landslides were also reported. Severe Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Caloy) On March 22, a tropical depression had developed within a marginal environment for further development about 340 kilometres (210 mi) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. During that day, the low level circulation consolidated while moving to the southeast, given the name Caloy by PAGASA. On March 23, the depression also known as Caloy strengthened into Tropical Storm Kalmaegi according to the JMA, while steadily tracking generally eastwards. On the next day, Kalmaegi strengthened to a severe tropical storm. The system continued to move inland in a westerly direction on March 25. Trami made landfall in the Fujian province of China on March 27, 2:40 a.m. local time. On March 23, officials in Luzon closed classes and government buildings in some cities due to heavy rainfall. Majors areas in Metro Manila and nearby provinces reported severe flooding. The Marikina River rose as high as 19 m (62 ft), forcing authorities evacuate nearby residents. Four provinces and Metro Manila were declared a state of calamity, and there were 4 deaths. The Yaeyama and Miyako Islands of Japan were battered with gusts from Kalmaegi as the system headed for Taiwan and China. In Taiwan, the storm produced gale force winds and heavy rainfall in northern Taiwan, with Taipei receiving 12 in (300 mm) of rain. Kalmaegi injured 10 people and forced 6,000 to evacuate, but damage was minor in Taiwan. In Fujian in eastern China, gusts peaked at 126 km/h (78 mph), and heavy rainfall occurred in several cities, forcing over 100,000 people to evacuate. In total, Kalmaegi caused $1.83 million (USD) in damage. Typhoon Fung-wong Category:Future storms Category:Future Typhoon Seasons Category:Typhoons